Timberland provides numerous benefits that distinguish it from other investments. A tree does not know what a market bubble is and it has never heard of the War on Terror. Trees grow every year, through wars, recessions, and market crashes. One of the primary advantages of owning timberland is it does not have to be harvested every year, unlike fruits that ripen just once and then have to be picked or row crops that are dependent on commodity prices. Instead, forests grow exponentially on the stump for years. Investors retain profits on the stump and wait for a more profitable time to sell timber – most likely, when timber prices are in their favor.
As an investment, timber has several favorable attributes. First, it's a hedge against inflation. Dr. Jack Lutz of Forest Research Group notes that "U.S. timberland returns appear to lead the U.S. Consumer Price Index by a year and those returns are highly positively correlated with inflation. Timberland is an asset that will preserve capital in the face of rising consumer prices.” Second, timber returns are uncorrelated to the stock market and have outperformed both the stock and bond markets from 1971-2010, with annual returns of over 14%. Timber performs especially well in bear markets. During the Great Depression, timber gained 233% as the price of stocks fell more than 70%. The asset class also significantly outperformed the S&P 500 during the three largest downturns of the 20th century (1911-20, 1929-41, and 1966-81). Though timber has seen some sluggish years lately, the long term trends are positive. The annual total return of the NCREIF Timberland Index in 2016 was 2.59%, down from 4.97% in 2015 and 10.48% in 2014.
Timber returns consists of three components:
- 1% annual land value increase
- 6-8% biologic growth of the trees
- 3% "stumpage" price increase (the price of the actual tree) has beaten inflation over the last 100 years.
Additionally, timber is a sustainable, renewable resource. It can be replanted and re-harvested over and over again. There are many different timber types and uses, and investment returns vary by geography and the economic conditions associated with the end products. Hardwoods are a smaller component of wood production and consumption in the US, with uses in consumer applications such as furniture, cabinets, flooring, and industrial applications such as truck beds, railroad ties, and pallets. Softwoods are mostly used in home construction, and thus their returns are more tied to the housing market's performance.
In today’s uncertain economic environment, the supply and demand fundamentals of timberland are positive for those with long investment horizons. An expanding global population and rising standard of living will continue to increase demand on a finite supply of timberland. The US is currently the largest consumer of wood products, closely followed by China, which is the largest importer of timber in the world. China is the destination for more than half of the timber shipped anywhere in the world, and that amount represents only 50% of the country’s wood consumption.
Timber will likely be a safer place to invest than either the stock market or the real estate market in the near future. However, investors should be patient, and treat timberland similarly to a zero-coupon bond. The investment has to mature before anyone gets paid. The biggest risk when investing in timberland is to pay too much for the property. Solid appraisals and stewardship by a reputable forestry management company are a prerequisite of any successful timberland investment.
Even during the most difficult economic times, trees grow, increasing in both volume and value. Institutional investors and college endowments know that timber is a key component of a balanced portfolio and is well suited for the long-term investor desiring a stable real asset with multiple value propositions. These attributes make timber a great place to park money in portfolios needing diversification and a hedge against inflation.
Harvest Returns provides investors opportunities to participate in a variety of income-producing agricultural products, to include timber.